Which term best describes a conclusion that can be shown to be more or less likely, but not necessary?

The term that best describes a conclusion that can be shown to be more or less likely, but not necessary, is "probable." This term indicates that there is a degree of likelihood associated with a conclusion, suggesting that it is based on evidence or reasoning that supports the conclusion to a certain extent, even though it is not absolute or guaranteed.

Probable conclusions rely on available information and can be subject to change as new evidence comes to light, which differentiates them from conclusions that are certain or definite. This openness allows for fluctuations in the interpretation of evidence and the conclusions drawn from it, making "probable" the most accurate choice among the options.

The other terms—certain, hypothetical, and definite—imply a stronger degree of assurance or specificity that is not aligned with the idea of something being merely likely. "Certain" and "definite" suggest a level of conclusion where there is no doubt, while "hypothetical" refers to situations or outcomes that are not real or have not occurred, leaving them more abstract. Thus, "probable" effectively captures the nuance of likelihood without asserting necessity.